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1995 Portuguese legislative election

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1995 Portuguese legislative election
← 1991 1 October 1995 1999 →
230 seats to the Portuguese Assembly
116 seats needed for a majority
Registered8,906,608 Increase5.3%
Turnout5,904,854 (66.3%)
Decrease1.5 pp
  First party Second party
 
Antonio Guterres 18 Jan 1996.jpeg
Picture of Fernando Nogueira.jpg
Leader António Guterres Fernando Nogueira
Party PS PSD
Leader since 23 February 1992 19 February 1995
Leader's seat Castelo Branco Porto
Last election 72 seats, 29.1% 135 seats, 50.6%
Seats won 112 88
Seat change Increase 40 Decrease 47
Popular vote 2,583,755 2,014,589
Percentage 43.8% 34.1%
Swing Increase 14.7 pp Decrease 16.5 pp
  Third party Fourth party
 
Carlos Carvalhas no XIX Congresso do PCP (cropped).png
Leader Manuel Monteiro Carlos Carvalhas
Party CDS–PP PCP
Alliance CDU
Leader since 22 March 1992 5 December 1992
Leader's seat Braga Lisbon
Last election 5 seats, 4.4% 17 seats, 8.8%
Seats won 15 15
Seat change Increase 10 Decrease 2
Popular vote 534,470 506,157
Percentage 9.1% 8.6%
Swing Increase 4.7 pp Decrease 0.2 pp
Prime Minister before election

Aníbal Cavaco Silva
PSD

Prime Minister after election

António Guterres
PS

The 1995 Portuguese legislative election took place on 1 October. The election renewed all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic.

The incumbent prime minister, Aníbal Cavaco Silva, decided not to run for a fourth consecutive term[1] and the Social Democratic Party, choose Fernando Nogueira, one of Cavaco Silva's deputies, as leader and candidate for prime minister in a highly contested and bitter party congress in February 1995.[2] But, the PSD was weakened by the end of the 10-year cycle of governments led by Cavaco Silva, amid scandals and the 1994 25 April bridge riots that shocked the country.[3] During the campaign, Cavaco Silva toyed with the idea of running for the 1996 Presidential elections, which he ultimately did.[4]

The PS easily won the elections with 44 percent of the votes, against the 34 percent of the PSD, achieving their first general election victory since 1983 and after a decade in opposition, but missed the absolute majority by 4 MPs. António Guterres, elected as PS leader three years before, became prime minister. The Social Democratic Party suffered a heavy defeat, losing almost 50 seats and 17 percentage points. This election marked the growing bi-polarization of the Portuguese political map. The two minor parties, the People's Party and the Democratic Unity Coalition (CDU) achieved only 15 MPs each, and for the first time ever the CDU failed to win a single district.

Although turnout, in percentage point, was lower than the previous election in 1991, almost 6 million voters cast a ballot on election day, the highest figure since 1980. Voter turnout stood at 66.3 percent, the lowest until then.

Background

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Leadership changes and challenges

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The four main parties all changed their leaders during the 1991–1995 legislature.

PS 1992 leadership election

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The 1991 general election Socialist defeat, and the scale of it, surprised the party, with António Guterres actually saying he "was in shock".[5] Then PS leader, Jorge Sampaio, faced a lot of criticisms about his strategy but, announced he was running for reelection as party leader. He would face António Guterres and Álvaro Beleza.[6] A party leadership congress was called for February 1992, but, during the days prior to the start of the congress, Sampaio withdrew from the race and Guterres was easily elected as party leader:[7] The results were the following:

Ballot: 21 February 1992
Candidate Votes %
António Guterres 88.0
Álvaro Beleza 12.0
Jorge Sampaio withdrew
Turnout
Source:[7]

CDS–PP 1992 leadership election

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Then CDS leader, Diogo Freitas do Amaral, resigned from the leadership following the party's poor results in the 1991 general elections.[8] A party congress to elect a new leader was called for late March 1992 and 3 candidates were on the ballot: Manuel Monteiro, Basílio Horta, the party's candidate for the 1991 Presidential election and António Lobo Xavier.[9] Manuel Monteiro was easily elected as leader:[10]

Ballot: 21 March 1992
Candidate Votes %
Manuel Monteiro WIN
Basílio Horta
António Lobo Xavier
Turnout
Source:

PCP 1992 leadership election

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The historic Portuguese Communist Party leader, Álvaro Cunhal, announced he would step down from the leadership of the party in late 1992.[11] Carlos Carvalhas, the party's deputy leader was chosen as Cunhal's successor and was unanimously elected, but Cunhal remained a powerful figure within the party as a new body, the National Council, was created and Cunhal would lead it.[12]

Ballot: 5 December 1992
Candidate Votes %
Carlos Carvalhas 100.0
Turnout
Source:

PSD 1995 leadership election

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After serving almost 10 years as prime minister, there were doubts if Cavaco Silva would run for another term, thus, creating a big "taboo" in Portuguese politics.[13] Cavaco promised a decision during the spring of 1995, but in January 1995, he announced he would not run for another term as prime minister and PSD leader.[14] This led the PSD to call a congress to elect a new leader. The congress become iconic for how tense and stormy it was, with strong accusations between several party members.[15] Three candidates announced a run for the leadership: Fernando Nogueira, former defense minister, José Manuel Durão Barroso, foreign affairs minister, and Pedro Santana Lopes, former culture secretary.[16] Santana Lopes withdrew before the ballot, and Fernando Nogueira narrowly defeated Durão Barroso by just 33 votes. The results were the following:

Ballot: 19 February 1995
Candidate Votes %
Fernando Nogueira 532 51.6
José Manuel Durão Barroso 499 48.4
Pedro Santana Lopes withdrew
Turnout 1,031
Source:[17][18]

Electoral system

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The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.[19]

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude.[20] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[21]

For these elections, and compared with the 1991 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following:[22]

District Number of MPs Map
Lisbon 50
Porto 37
Setúbal(+1) 17
Braga 16
Aveiro 14
Leiria, Santarém and Coimbra 10
Viseu 9
Faro 8
Viana do Castelo 6
Azores, Castelo Branco, Madeira and Vila Real(–1) 5
Beja, Bragança, Évora and Guarda 4
Portalegre 3
Europe and Outside Europe 2

Parties

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The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 6th legislature (1991–1995) and that also partook in the election:

Name Ideology Political position Leader 1991 result
% Seats
PPD/PSD Social Democratic Party
Partido Social Democrata 		Liberal conservatism
Classical liberalism 		Centre-right Fernando Nogueira 50.6%
135 / 230
PS Socialist Party
Partido Socialista 		Social democracy
Third Way 		Centre-left António Guterres 29.1%
72 / 230
PCP Portuguese Communist Party
Partido Comunista Português 		Communism
Marxism–Leninism 		Far-left Carlos Carvalhas
8.8%
[a]
15 / 230
PEV Ecologist Party "The Greens"
Partido Ecologista "Os Verdes" 		Eco-socialism
Green politics 		Left-wing Isabel Castro
2 / 230
CDS-PP CDS – People's Party
Centro Democrático e Social – Partido Popular 		Christian democracy
National conservatism 		Centre-right
to right-wing 		Manuel Monteiro 4.4%
5 / 230
PSN National Solidarity Party
Partido da Solidariedade Nacional 		Humanism
Pensioners' rights 		Centre Carlos Bastos 1.7%
1 / 230

Campaign period

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Party slogans

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Party or alliance Original slogan English translation Refs
PSD « Mais e melhor para Portugal » "More and better for Portugal" [23]
PS « A nova maioria » "The new majority." [24]
CDU « Vamos dar a volta a isto » "Let's turn this around" [25]
CDS–PP « Vamos dar lugar a Portugal » "Let's make way for Portugal" [26]

Candidates' debates

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The 1995 debates, between PSD leader Fernando Nogueira and PS leader António Guterres, were the first general election debates since the 1985 elections.

1995 Portuguese legislative election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     P  Present    A  Absent invitee  N  Non-invitee 
PSD
Nogueira 		PS
Guterres 		Refs
6 Sep RTP1 José Eduardo Moniz
Maria Elisa Domingues 		P P [27]
13 Sep SIC Miguel Sousa Tavares
Margarida Marante 		P P [27]

Opinion polling

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See also: Exit poll and Opinion poll

The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 1991 and 1995 for reference.

Note, until 2000, the publication of opinion polls in the last week of the campaign was forbidden.

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls
  Exit poll

Date Released Polling Firm PSD PS CDU CDS–PP Others Lead
1 Oct 1995 Leg. election 34.1
88 		43.8
112 		8.6
15 		9.1
15 		4.4
0 		9.7
1 Oct 1995 RTP/Euroteste 35.0–39.0
93 		40.0–45.0
107 		7.0–9.0
16 		7.0–9.0
14 		— 5.5
1 Oct 1995 SIC/Metris 34.5 42.2 9.0 9.2 5.1 7.7
1 Oct 1995 TVI/Universidade Católica 35.5 41.0 8.0 10.0 5.5 5.5
29 Sep 1995 Norma 40.3 35.2 9.7 9.3 5.5 5.1
23 Sep 1995 Metris 32.0 42.0 10.0 8.0 8.0 10.0
23 Sep 1995 Euroteste 35.0 39.0 9.0 10.0 7.0 4.0
23 Sep 1995 Euroexpansão 32.7 44.5 11.5 6.9 4.4 11.8
23 Sep 1995 Universidade Católica 35.0 40.0 9.0 10.0 6.0 5.0
22 Sep 1995 IPSOS 35.0 41.0 9.0 9.0 6.0 6.0
21 Sep 1995 Marktest 33.0 42.0 10.0 9.0 6.0 9.0
16 Sep 1995 Compta 39.0 40.0 12.0 8.0 1.0 1.0
16 Sep 1995 Euroexpansão 33.7 41.8 8.8 9.1 6.6 8.1
9 Sep 1995 Euroexpansão 31.8 41.5 11.5 8.7 6.5 9.7
28 Jul 1995 Compta RH 35.8 43.6 11.7 7.0 1.8 7.8
14 Jul 1995 Compta RH 36.8 44.4 9.9 6.5 2.4 7.6
30 Jun 1995 Compta RH 34.8 45.4 8.6 8.1 3.1 10.6
9 Jun 1995 Compta RH 31.2 45.6 9.7 8.6 4.9 14.4
1 May 1995 Euroteste 40.5 42.5 — — 17.0 2.0
12 Jun 1994 EP elections 34.4 34.9 11.2 12.5 7.0 0.5
12 Dec 1993 Local elections 33.7 40.2 12.8 8.4 4.9 6.5
24 Sep 1993 Euroteste 44.5 34.8 10.0 8.7 2.0 9.7
29 May 1993 Euroexpansão 33.8 34.6 — — 31.6 0.8
29 May 1993 Euroteste 45.5 34.3 — — 20.2 11.2
6 Oct 1991 Leg. election 50.6
135 		29.1
72 		8.8
17 		4.4
5 		7.1
1 		21.5

National summary of votes and seats

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Summary of the 1 October 1995 Assembly of the Republic elections results
Parties Votes % ± MPs MPs %/
votes %
1991 1995 ± % ±
Socialist 2,583,755 43.76 Increase14.7 72 112 Increase40 48.70 Increase17.4 1.11
Social Democratic 2,014,589 34.12 Decrease16.5 135 88 Decrease47 38.26 Decrease20.4 1.12
People's[b] 534,470 9.05 Increase4.7 5 15 Increase10 6.52 Increase4.3 0.72
Democratic Unity Coalition[c] 506,157 8.57 Decrease0.2 17 15 Decrease2 6.52 Decrease0.9 0.76
Portuguese Workers' Communist 41,137 0.70 Decrease0.2 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
Revolutionary Socialist 37,638 0.64 Decrease0.5 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
People's Democratic Union 33,876 0.57 Increase0.5 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
National Solidarity 12,613 0.21 Decrease1.5 1 0 Decrease1 0.00 Decrease0.4 0.0
Party of the Folk 8,279 0.14 — — 0 — 0.00 — 0.0
Earth 8,235 0.14 — — 0 — 0.00 — 0.0
Earth / People's Monarchist 5,932 0.10 — — 0 — 0.00 — 0.0
Unity Movement for Workers 2,544 0.04 — — 0 — 0.00 — 0.0
Democratic Party of the Atlantic 2,536 0.04 Decrease0.2 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
Total valid 5,791,761 98.08 Increase0.0 230 230 Steady0 100.00 Steady0.0 —
Blank ballots 45,793 0.78 Decrease0.0
Invalid ballots 67,300 1.14 Increase0.0
Total 5,904,854 100.00
Registered voters/turnout 8,906,608 66.30 Decrease1.5
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
Vote share
PS
 
 43.76%
PSD
 
 34.12%
CDS-PP
 
 9.05%
CDU
 
 8.57%
PCTP/MRPP
 
 0.70%
PSR
 
 0.64%
UDP
 
 0.57%
Others
 
 0.67%
Blank/Invalid
 
 1.92%
Parliamentary seats
PS
 
 48.70%
PSD
 
 38.26%
CDS-PP
 
 6.52%
CDU
 
 6.52%

Distribution by constituency

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Results of the 1995 election of the Portuguese Assembly of the
Republic by constituency
Constituency % S % S % S % S Total
S
PS PSD CDS–PP CDU
Azores 37.6 2 47.8 3 9.4 - 1.8 - 5
Aveiro 40.2 6 41.2 6 12.6 2 2.7 - 14
Beja 45.8 2 15.7 1 3.6 - 29.2 1 4
Braga 42.9 8 38.2 7 10.7 1 4.5 - 16
Bragança 40.3 2 44.8 2 9.4 - 1.9 - 4
Castelo Branco 53.2 3 32.1 2 7.2 - 5.3 - 5
Coimbra 49.1 6 34.5 4 7.1 - 5.1 - 10
Évora 42.6 2 20.2 1 5.2 - 26.9 1 4
Faro 49.6 5 29.2 3 8.3 - 7.8 - 8
Guarda 43.7 2 39.9 2 9.9 - 2.3 - 4
Leiria 36.7 4 43.3 5 11.4 1 4.5 - 10
Lisbon 44.3 24 29.0 15 9.4 5 12.0 6 50
Madeira 32.0 2 46.1 3 12.9 - 1.3 - 5
Portalegre 50.5 2 23.4 1 6.3 - 14.0 - 3
Porto 46.7 18 36.4 14 7.8 3 6.0 2 37
Santarém 45.8 5 31.0 3 8.7 1 9.5 1 10
Setúbal 44.9 9 18.4 3 7.2 1 23.8 4 17
Viana do Castelo 38.8 3 42.1 3 11.3 - 4.6 - 6
Vila Real 40.0 2 46.0 3 7.8 - 1.9 - 5
Viseu 38.4 4 44.3 4 11.5 1 1.8 - 9
Europe 35.1 1 33.8 1 4.4 - 6.4 - 2
Outside Europe 12.8 - 69.3 2 3.8 - 1.2 - 2
Total 43.8 112 34.1 88 9.1 15 8.6 15 230
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Maps

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Notes

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  1. ^ The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 1999 election in a coalition called Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) and won a combined 8.8% of the vote and elected 17 MPs to parliament.
  2. ^ In 1993, the name "People's Party" was added to the party's name.
  3. ^ Portuguese Communist Party (13 MPs) and "The Greens" (2 MPs) ran in coalition.

References

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  1. ^ "Cavaco Silva não se recandidata ao PSD", RTP Arquivo, 23 January 1995. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  2. ^ ""Big Show PSD": Drama, comédia, suspense - há de tudo em 37 anos de congressos , TSF, 16 February 2018. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  3. ^ "Bloqueio da ponte. O princípio do fim do cavaquismo foi há 25 anos", Diário de Notícias, 22 July 2019. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  4. ^ "Conferência de imprensa de Cavaco Silva", RTP Arquivo, 7 February 1995. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  5. ^ "10 momentos que marcaram a vida do novo secretário-geral da ONU", Jornal Sol, 7 October 2016. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  6. ^ "O ano em que (o muito jovem) Álvaro Beleza quis liderar o PS", Observador, 5 October 2015. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  7. ^ a b "Perdeu PS para Guterres e Beleza ficou com votos do líder no congresso", Jornal de Notícias, 10 September 2021. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  8. ^ "Demissão de Freitas do Amaral", RTP, 7 October 1991. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  9. ^ "X Congresso do CDS", RTP, 21 March 1992. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  10. ^ "Manuel Monteiro eleito líder do CDS", RTP, 22 March 1992. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  11. ^ "A despedida de um líder que nunca deixou de o ser", Diário de Notícias, 14 June 2005. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  12. ^ "Entrevista a Carlos Carvalhas", RTP, 6 December 1991. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  13. ^ "O grande tabu quebrou-se há 20 anos ", Expresso, 16 February 2015. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  14. ^ "Cavaco Silva não se recandidata ao PSD", RTP, 23 January 1995. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  15. ^ "OS SEGREDOS E OS NOMES DE UMA NOITE DE TEMPESTADE NO COLISEU", Correio da Manhã, 3 October 2003. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  16. ^ "Candidatos do PSD em ações de campanha", RTP, 16 February 1995. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  17. ^ "XVII Congresso do PSD", RTP, 19 February 1995. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  18. ^ "Os congressos quentes do PSD no poder ", Público, 23 March 2012. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  19. ^ "Constitution of the Portuguese Republic" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-03-03. Retrieved 2019-12-29.
  20. ^ "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 2015-10-21.
  21. ^ Gallaher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities"
  22. ^ "Eleição da Assembleia da República de 1 de Outubro de 1995". CNE - Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Eleição da Assembleia da República de 1 de Outubro de 1995. Retrieved 3 December 2020.
  23. ^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 1995 – PSD". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  24. ^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 1995 – PS". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Archived from the original on 5 June 2020. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  25. ^ "PCP – 1995". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  26. ^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 1995 – CDS-PP". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  27. ^ a b "O que mudam os debates na TV". Correio da Manhã (in Portuguese). 4 September 2009. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
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See also

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